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Thoughtson《1587，ayearofnosignificance》RayHuang’sworks《1587，ayearofnosignificance》，writtenfromamacro-historyperspective，selectedaspecificyearof1587bywhichthepreviousfirstgrand-secretaryChangChu-chenghadpassedawayforfiveyearsandfocusedon6representativefigureswithdifferentidentitiesincludingoneemperor，threecivilofficials，onemilitaryofficerandonephilosopher.Thebookcanbedescribedasachronicleoffailurewhetherinpolitics，economyormilitary，amongwhich，politicalfailurewastheroot.Nomatterhowexcellentandresponsiblethesefigureswere，allendeavorsseemedtoresultinvain.Thisarticlefallsinto3parts，includingelaborationsaboutContradictions，CompromiseandCollapse.IContradictionsIt’snothardtodrawtheconclusionthatcontradictionsprevailedeveryaspectsandlevelsofthisdynastyandthisdynastywasdoomedbythisperiod，afterreadingthisbookaswellasrelevantliterature.1.Emperorvscivilofficialgroup：Theformerwasexpectedtoperformjustlikeapuppetandactinanimpeccableandmeticulousmannerbythelatter，whowouldcriticizetheformerateventrifledetails.InWan-liEmperor’swords,theywere“earninganameofrighteousnessbypayingthepenaltyofbeingdisrespectfuloftheemperor”（讪君卖直）.Eunuchscouldactasagentsfortheemperors.Asmartemperorshouldmakewelluseofeunuchsinorderformoreroomforcoordinationandmitigation.Secretagenciesshouldalsobeputtogoodusetokeeptheemperorwell-informedaboutcurrentsituationinordernottobeeasilyfooledbytheofficials.Wasitjustcoincidentalthat，EmperorCheng-teandTian-qi,whohadnotliveduptothecivilofficials’expectations，bothdiedofdrowningatayoungageallofasudden？2.Civilofficialsvsmilitaryofficers：Underthesystem，thelatterwhohadbeendealingwithmilitaryaffairshiswholelife，wassupposedtobeobediencetothedeploymentoftheformer，someofwhomevenhadneverbeentothebattlefront.3.Gapbetweensocialclasses：Theancientfeudalsocietywasdividedinto4categoriesofclassesincluding“scholar,farmer,artisanandmerchant”.Theintellectualclasshadaprivilegeoftaxexemption.Farmerandartisan，attheverybottomofthesocialladder，weremostheavilyexploited，amanifestationofadistortedandunfairruleof“exploitingtheimpoverishedtopatronizetheaffluent”（损不足而奉有余）.Themerchants，bycollaborationwiththebureaucrats，couldmakeahandsomeprofitatanexplicitcommercialtaxationrateof1/30.Thoughbanonmaritimetradewasstillobserved，powerfulseamerchantscouldmaketensofmillionsofouncesofsilver，muchlargerthantheannualtaxationincomeoflateMingDynasty.Thesocietyhadatypicalstructureof“submarinesandwich”，consistingofanover-sizedcorpsofcivilofficialsandalargenumberofpeasantsunorganized.4.Areasafflictedbywarsanddisastersvsareasrelativelytranquil：Thenorth-w···grainyieldasaresultoftheperiodofMinorIceAge，whichconstitutedafatalstriketoanenormousagriculture-basedempirewithahugepopulation.Inthemeantime，situationinsouthernareaswasrelativelybetter.However，therulingclassofthiscountryneverseemedtofindawaytobridgethegapsbetweendifferentareasorclasses，soastorelievethepoor，theafflictedjustalittlebit.5.Conflictsinsidethecivilofficialgroupitself:Bythisstageofthedynasty，consensuscouldhardlybeachieved.Onthecontrary，therewereendlessverbalquarrelsandwrittendebatesbetweenthemoverinsignificantincidentsorabstractmoralityissues.InShenShih-hsing’swords,thecountrywasinadangerousstatusof“acleavagebetweenthetopandthebottom，aseparationoftheinteriorfromtheexterior”（上下否鬲，中外睽携）.Theopinionsoftheemperorandfirstgrand-secretarywhohadawholepictureofsituationoftenvariedfromthoseofgeneralcivilofficialswhomainlybaredinminddepartmentalandpartialinterest.Asforthegeneralcivilofficials，itwasunspokenbutwidelyobeyedthateverybodyclaimedtolivebytheprofessedmoralcodelabeledasyang（阳），butinpracticeactedupontheirhiddendesiresandmotivationslabeledasyin（阴）.Tracingback，thereasonforgeneralfailureinvariousrealmslayinthefactthat，thesystemestablishedintheveryearlyyearsoftheMingdynasty，whichwasinitiallytailoredforasmall-scalepeasanteconomybythedynasticfounder，couldnolongercomplywiththedevelopmentoftheeconomyandsociety.Theextenttowhichtheadministrationofanimmenseempirewithsuchcomplexitywasheavilyreliantonmoralcode，insteadoflawsandtechniques，wasunprecedented.Asaresult，thesocietywasbarelyunderefficientandeffectivemanagement，intheauthor’swords,“mathematicallyunmanageable”.Havingeliminatedpotentialthreatsfromimperialprinces，imperialconsort’sfamilyandprimeministers，Hong-wuemperor，founderofthisdynasty，hadmadeseriousmistakesinestablishingthesystem，whichfinallyledtoseriousoutcomesthroughoutthedynasty.I’dliketosummarizethedeep-rootedreasonsofthefailuresasfollows：1.Theout-datedandunfairtaxationsystem：Firstly,theimplementationofphysicaltaxsysteminsteadofmonetarytaxsystemwasagreatsetbackevencomparedwiththesysteminSongDynasty.Underthissystem，“thelowestcivilofficecouldberequiredtomakedeliveriesatascoreofdisbursingagencies，eachofwhichwouldinreturnreceiveconsignmentsfromascoreofsuppliers”.Conclusionscouldbedrawnfromabovethatgreatproportionoflossofmaterialobjectsaswellasefficiencywouldbeincurredinthis“multi-unitstomulti-units”deliverymechanism，resultinginproblemsconcerningquantity，qualityandefficiency，whichshouldbeheldaccountablefornumerousmilitaryfailures.Secondly,thetaxationexemptionprivilegegrantedtothegroupofthecivilofficialgroupandtheintellectualwaslargelyabusedandfinallydrainedthefinancialresourcesofthecountry.Thirdly，taxationrateforcommercewassetatanunreasonablylowrate.Moreover,thegovernmentstrictlyabidedbythepolicyofbanofmaritimetrade,whichwasactuallyfutileforpowerfulseamerchants，possiblyincollaborationwithgovernmentalofficials，causingaconsiderabletaxationleakinthenationalincome.Thesocietywasrunbyheavyrelianceonmoralcodesandimplicitrules，insteadofdistinctlawsandexplicitrules，providingmuchroomforrent-seekingandmanipulation.Asaresult,whereaslargeamountofwealthwenttoprivatepockets，thecentralgovernmentwasalwaysfacingseriousrevenueshortage，whichdeterioratedtheineffectivesystemoflogisticsandorganizationanddidn'tcontributetoextendedreproductionastheChinesehadatraditionofaccumulatingwealthbypurchasinglandsorhidingawaytopassontothedescendants.2.Rigidhouseholdregistrationsystemwhichaimedtocontrolidentitiesstrictlyandlimitthealterationtotheminimum.Professionofeverymemberofthissocietywasdeterminedbytiesofblood，insteadofpersonalaspiration.Consequently，thisledtoaminimizationofvitalityofthesocietyandinnovationincentives.Taketheartisanprofessionasanexample，thisinstitutionalarrangementonlyresultedinunstandardizedflawedproductsandlowefficiency，whichwasheldaccountablefornumerousmilitaryfailures.Lineagesofmilitaryhouseholdswasalsoprovedtobeasystemwithplentyofweaknesses.3.Theabolishmentofthepositionofprimeministerwiththesubstituteoffirstgrand-secretariesleftroomforambiguitywhichtoacertainextentshouldbeheldresponsibleforthestatusof“acleavagebetweenthetopandthebottom”（上下否鬲）.becausedidn’thavereciprocalauthority.4.Thesalaryscalesettoolowmadepeopleofdifferentidentitiesfeeljustifiedtoearnextraincome.5.Theatmosphereofover-judgingandcriticizingothersincludingtheemperorespeciallybythecensorofficialsaswellaspublicopinionsveryoftenovertrifledetailswithabstractchargesmightleadtoevasionfromresponsibility.AtypicalexamplewasthehesitationofboththeChong-zhenemperorandhisgrand-secretariestomakeimportantdecisionssuchassummoningtheprovincialtroopstorescuePekingagainstthepeasantuprisingarmy，movingthecapitaltoNan-kingorsendingtheimperialheirtoNan-king.Actuallytheyfailedtomakinganymove，justawaitingfortheirdoompassively.IICompromiseLet’stakeanoverviewofcharactersinthisbook，noneofwhomhadtriedtolaunchareformagainsttheexistingsystem.EvenChangChu-chengwasjustmakingminoradjustmentsinsomeaspects,thecoreofwhichincludedthemeasuringofnationallandsandevaluationofofficial’sperformance，theformerreceivinggreatresistancefrominterestgroupsandputtoanenduponhisdeath,thelatternullifiedbyShenShih-hsing.Notonlywasheposthumouslydisgracedandhisfamilymaltreated，buthiseffortsalsocamenowhere.ShenShih-hsing,asarighteous，tolerantandperseverantman，whohadattemptedtobridgethegapbetweentheemperorandtheofficialgroup，wasfinallycompelledtoresigndirectlyduetothesuccessionissue.Infact，thedeep-rootedreasonswereasstatedinpartone.Anyoneholdingthepositionoffirstgrand-secretaries，evenasage，wouldbeviewedasspokemanoftheemperorandunspokenenemyofthecivilofficialgroup.HaiJui，amodelofficialactingstrictlybythemoralcodes，didn'tgoalongwiththegeneraltricksof“yin”and“yang”bythegeneralcivilofficialsandtriedtosolvetheproblemsconcerningusury，whichputhimselfundersevereattacksbyhisopposers.ItwasworthnotingthatapersonwithamoralstandingashighasHaiJui，wasattackedbyhisopposersunderthedisguiseofmoralityissues，butactuallyduetothefactsthattheirinterestswereimpairedbyHaiJui’sactions.HaiJuispenthislastyearsataidlepositionwhichwasagainsthisdown-to-earthnature.Ch’iChi-kuangachievedsuccessbythesupportofChangChu-cheng.Itwassadforhimthatonlybythiswaycouldheattainexternaleffortandexertedhisowntalents.Itwassadforthecountrythatanexcellentmilitarytalentwasputasideforpersonnelreasons.LiChih,whobegantoraisequestionsaboutissuesprevailingChinaforthousandsofyearssuchasmonarchicalpower，feudalsociety，confucianism，hadbeenseekingananswerandanwayoutthroughouthisremainderoflifebutonlybecamemoreconfused，thoughheleftusvaluableworksandthevaluablespiritofprobing.Inspiteoftheirexcellenceandperseverance,alldifferentattemptshadcometoadeadend.Alloftheireffortshadnotexceededtheinstitutionalframework,whichwasstillintolerantbytheexistinginterestgroup，whowouldratherreservethisambiguous，undynamic，obsoletesystemsoastoprovideconveniencefortheirmanipulationandrent-seekingacts.Asthesystemwasdesignedinthesolepursuitofmaintainingastableandself-sufficientsocietyandbarelyaddressedthepresentsituationandissues，allotherpursuitsoffairness,efficiencyandeffectivenesshadtogivewaytostability.TakingtheBattleofSarhūin1619asanexample，thefactorsofadecisiontogotowarinarushwithoutfullpreparationpriortothemarching，lackofcarefuldeploymentandclosecoordinationofindependenttroops，ill-trainedsoldiers，unstandardisedweaponsofbadquality，theneglectofinformationservice，insustainability andnon-elasticityofthefinancialrevenuesystem……madethefailureaninevitableoutcome.Troopsof10thousandsofsoldierswerewipedoutonebyonewithinaweek.Theinfluenceofthisbattlewasprofound，confidenceofthewholeempiredeclinedtoafreezingpoint.Whatwasthemostpatheticlayinthedisposalofthemilitarycommandersrelevant.Thebraveoneswhodiedoffightingonthebattlefieldwereframedasscapegoatssoastofreeothersoftheliability，whilethetimidoneswhocowardlyescapedfromthebattlefieldwasabsolvedinhopeoffuturereinstation.Theutterunfairnessinthedisposalofmilitaryofficersinthisbattleandthesubsequentoneswasaclearmanifestationof“badmoneydrivesoutgood”principle.Insummary,thesystemwassoobsoleteandobstinatethatitallowedquitelimitedroomforslightimprovementandinnovation.Undersuchsystem,therewasnopossibilityforsuccess.Whatwasdifferentwasonlywhichspecificreasonswereliableforthespecificfailure.Buttheresultoffailurewasinevitable.WhywouldtheMingdynasty，withsomanytalentsofsuchwisdom，determinationanddevotion，eventuallyfallintosuchblunder？SupposingoccasionalissuessuchasthesuccessionissueorWan-liEmperor’sgrudgetowardsChangChu-cheng’sstrictturorshipneverhappened,wouldthisempireachievedabetterstatus？Theanswerwasstillno.Itwasnotlongbeforeperniciousconsequencesunveiled.Allpeopleoftheempire，indifferentorconcernedaboutNortheasternregionissues，weretopaythepricetwodecadeslater，astestifiedbynumerousmassacresperepetratedbytheQingarmyforcesinYangzhou，Jiading，Guangzhouetc，causingadrasticfallofpopulationoftensofmillions.Whoshouldbeaccountedforthisfataldisaster，theemperor，thecivilofficialgroup，provincialgovernors，gentrystratum……？Actually，nosnowflakeinanavalanchewasinnocent.Onlybybloodanddeathsdidsomepeoplebegintorealizethatnomancouldbeanislandfreefromthewholecontinent,whichwasalreadytoolate.IIICollapseAsstatedabove，thecollapsewasanaturalconclusion.Tracingbackfurther，failurewasdoomedsincetheAn-ShihRebellioninTangDynasty，afterwhichChinahadlostforeverandfailedtoretrieveeverafteritsairofease，confidenceandopenness.Thesubsequentrulingclasseshadbecomemoreandmoreconservativeandretrogressive.Theoutcomewascatastrophic.Notonlylosingthereignofthisdynasty，butthegeneralpublic，nobleorhumble，alsohadtobendtoforceandcastawaythetraditionalcultureandcustomstheyhadabidedbyforalongterm，whichevokedanotherroundofresistance.Let’scastoureyesoneventsthathappenedaroundtheworld:GreatandMostFortunateNavysetsailtoconquertheAmericancontinent,EuropeancountrieshadbeengoingthroughRenaissance,Russiawasbusyexpandingitsterritory……Entering16thcentury，othercountriesintheworldseemedtosteponahigh-speedtrainatanacceleratedvelocity，whileourempireseemedtobeheldstillorevenslidingbackwards.Thecontrastinthereversedevelopmentpatternshaddrawnthecivilizationrankofourempireintheworldfatherawayfromthoseofwesterncountries.Thegloryoftheoldempirefadingout，atthecrucialturningpointofhistory，whatmustbedonehadtodone，whatmustbegonethroughhadtobegonethrough，beforeenteringawholenewera.万历十五年以大历史观（即推后几十年以上看影响）的视角，截取了1587作横断面，叙述了6位身份角色各自不同的人物，都是各领域的佼佼者，结局却无一不败。第一部分：矛盾重重。充斥社会各领域各层面。1.皇帝与文官集团之争。万历皇帝用了个词，讪君卖直。内监其实可作其代言人，厂卫为其耳目，精明的皇帝应善加利用，不应自废武功。2.文武之争。外行指挥内行。3.士农工商各阶层的利益未得到好好协调，损不足而奉有余，商与士阶层勾联，农工被踩在脚底。社会结构有如美国潜水艇夹肉面包，上面是一块长面包，大而无当，此乃文官集团；下面也是一块长面包，也没有有效的组织，此乃成千上万的农民。4.地区之间差距。西北东北饱受战争灾荒，东南相对承平。但国家并无相应机制加以调度。5.文官集团内部之争。首辅被默认为皇帝代言人而不被百官信任。文官集团内部之间好以道德大义之名大做文章，争什么不要紧，道德只是为了不可告人的目的拉来的伪装，即“阴”与“阳”之术。这种状态申时行总结为“上下否鬲，中外睽携”。向前追溯，在洪武朝就埋下了失败的种子，太祖设计了一个适应小农经济的制度安排，随社会发展大多落为一纸空文或成为阻碍。后人却因祖制之名只能小修小补、敲敲打打。帝国缔造者消除了来自藩王、后戚及丞相的威胁，但有些制度缺陷影响深远。1落后的财税安排，比之宋朝都多有不足，一是采用实物税，多对多的安排必然导致数量、质量、效率上的漏损。二是给士绅阶层免税，最后造成很多隐户，到国家财政资源枯竭时其利益实际上与国家利益相对立了。三是商税税率设置过低，且有太多潜规则，又实施海禁（实际上总有禁不住），造成寻租空间，大量财富进入私人腰包，损失海上贸易收入，国家没有得到一分钱好处。2.僵化的户藉制度。反人性的制度安排。匠户制度，非标准化产品，质效低下。军户卫所制度。3.取消丞相，而以内阁首辅代之，但首辅之权威并不足够，上下离心纷争。4.低下不合实际的工资水平。人们可心安理得地去之追求额外收入。5.以道德治国，过度的批评文化，导致人们不敢担当，上至皇帝，崇祯皇帝最后表现为典型。第二部分妥协修补。皇帝从勤政到无为而治，张居正汲汲求治却人亡政息，丈量土地、考成法都被废止，申时行从尽力协调到被迫辞职，海瑞从道德模范到被高高挂起，被攻击的点仍然是道德，用放大镜去找任何人的道德问题不可能找不到，实际上是因为他动了既得利益集团的蛋糕。戚南塘成也居正败也居正，国有良将而不用，这是国家的悲哀。李贽左奔右突苦苦求索而不得其解，对君权等产生质疑是可贵的，放在明末却不合时宜。以上并未提出激烈改革，均在制度内加以调整完善，尽力补足技术之不足，却无不失败，皆因制度已至山穷水尽，无人不成为牺牲品。萨尔浒之败就是一个总体现…，一周之内十万军队被努尔哈赤各个击破。败亡结果不可避免，所不同的不过是这里出错还是那里出错。败绩影响深远，处理更不得人心。英勇战死者成为替罪羊，怯懦逃命者反而加官进爵，明末，劣币驱逐良币比比皆是。万历国本之争等是偶然事件，没有这些发生，国家仍然是日末途穷。数十年之后，多年惰政、不作为、妥协、漠不关心的恶果就出现了，有清军在扬州、嘉定、广州等地造成的大屠杀为证。到底谁该负责？皇帝，朝堂衮衮诸公，吸附在国家身上吸血的特权阶层？雪崩来临的时候，没有一片雪花是无辜的。第三部分大厦倾颓。往更远追溯，封建社会的下滑从安史之乱就注定了，在此之后，大国自信开明从容气度不再，统治者日趋保守。但这次不同往日，不仅是亡国，更是亡天下，用顾炎武的话说，小民都感受到了切身之痛。剃发令掀起了又一轮反抗高潮。放眼看看世界，西班牙无敌舰队征服了整个美洲，欧洲完成了文艺复兴，俄国忙于领土扩张…进入16世纪，不知不觉，我们已落后巨大身位。旧世界的荣光已经淡去，该来的始终要来，该经历的始终要经历，直到一个崭新的时代来临。